Waterloo Regional Chair 2018 Poll

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With the incumbent Chair retiring, the 2018 race is a competitive four-way race that has the potential to determine the direction of our Region for the foreseeable future.

The race is between four candidates: Jay Aissa, Karen Redman, Jan D'Ailly, and Rob Deutschmann. Currently, there is no polling data available to indicate the popularity of any of these candidates and we know of no firm that intends to poll this election.

We propose to conduct an Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) poll of both landline and cellphones with a sample size of approximately 300-500 residents of Waterloo Region, asking each participant about their Regional Chair voting intentions.

We have previously run campaign polls for local candidates in other elections, and will be drawing on our experience and tools built up during those polling experiences to conduct this poll. We also have extensive experience in statistical analysis.

After the polling is complete, we will publish weighted results and publish the raw results on http://openicpsr.org/ within three days.

Funding Policies

With the target funding of $1000 we will be able to conduct a poll with the minimum acceptable sample size. If we do not reach this goal, we will not be able to conduct the poll and will issue a full refund.

If we exceed our funding goal, we will use the excess funds to increase the sample size, thereby increasing the accuracy of the polling data.

Timeline

 - October 13: Deadline for reaching the funding goal
 - October 16-17: Polling is conducted
 - October 18-19: Data is analyzed and published before election day on October 22

Polling Questions

In addition to standard demographics questions, we will be asking the following questions:

If the election for Waterloo Region Chair were held today, who would you vote for?

[Randomized order]

[Press 1 for] Jay Assia
[Press 2 for] Jan d'Ailly
[Press 3 for] Rob Deutschmann
[Press 4 for] Karen Redman
[Press 9] if you'd prefer not to say

4. What is the most important issue to you in this election?

[Press 1 for] Keeping taxes low
[Press 2 for] Improving housing affordability
[Press 3 for] Lowering crime
[Press 4 for] Improving public transit
[Press 5 for] Building more roads
[Press 6 for] Improving cycling infrastructure
[Press 7 for] Increasing social services
[Press 8 for] Something else
[Press 9] if you'd prefer not to say

5. Did you vote in the 2014 Municipal Election?

[Press 1 for] Yes
[Press 2 for] No
[Press 3 if] you were not eligible to vote in the 2014 Municipal Election
[Press 9 for] Prefer not to answer
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The unofficial results of the Regional Chair election are now up: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/regional-government/results.aspx

Our poll predicted the outcome of the election with remarkable accuracy:

Candidate - actual % / polling %
Karen Redman - 62.4% / 66.6%
Rob Deutschmann - 18.8% / 18.1%
Jan D'Ailly - 9.7% / 8.6%
Jay Aissa - 9.1% / 6.7%

Thank you once again for your support of this poll!
+ Read More
The poll result are up with some interesting details and analysis. See it here: https://threehundredthirtyeight.com/karen-redman-leads-in-waterloo-region-chair-race

I've made a twitter thread about the poll with some of the interesting details if you would like to share via twitter: https://twitter.com/chradcliffe/status/1052989099932602369
+ Read More
Today we will release the results of our poll! After two days of polling, we have over 500 responses. We are planning to complete our analysis this morning and produce our report. We anticipate being able to send the report to our donors shortly after noon and we will issue our press release at around 2pm.

Thanks again to our donors for their support!
+ Read More
Today marks our fundraising deadline. We've started preparations for the polling and we are on track to get academic ethics approval tomorrow (a requirement due to academic staff involvement in the project).

When we have the results, our donors will receive "Thank You" messages with the results hours before we issue our press release.

Thank you all once again for your support.
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