We are living in an era in which world leaders use models of the climate and ecology to help them make decisions that impact everyone’s future. These data-driven tools have a wide influence, guiding policy agendas, media coverage, and they even make their way into the classroom.
Here's the problem: Our youth-led research team has identified forms of fossil fuel funded misinformation that has become congealed into leading climate models. Right now, we are the only research team that is "in process" to remove the broken, fossil-fuel-funded metrics from the models, and due to IPCC deadlines, we have a matter of weeks to do it. If we don't remove these metrics now, the deadline will pass, and these models will be locked in as they are for the next 7 years, meaning we won't be able to change them again until the early 2030s.
Some of the changes that urgently need to be made:
- Adjust leading socio-economic climate models to better factor in the impact of fossil fuel companies upon GHG emissions.
- Remove metrics rooted in fossil-fuel-funded misinformation, including metrics that inaccurately tie human population numbers to emissions in ways that obfuscate the possibility of energy transitions.
- Remove metrics from socio-economic climate "meta-models" that have no basis in evidence. (These meta-models cause fossil-fuel-funded misinformation to get into leading climate models due to standardization protocols.)
- Advocate for the inclusion of indicators designed by youth researchers, including indicators that track the emissions impacts of war, income inequality, fossil fuel lobbying, and mass displacement.
Right now is a rare window in which it's possible to make repairs to leading climate models. Soon that window will close, and after that, the leading climate models will get "locked in" and we won't be able to repair them again for another 7 years. This is the last chance to make these repairs before the early 2030s. These changes urgently need to happen to leading climate models, and our research team is the only one in the running to do it in time for the deadline.
But here's our problem: Due to budget cuts, including and especially those initiated by DOGE, our lab's funding has vanished. Without funds, there is no way we can get this work done.
Reasons we need funds:
- To attend key meetings and gathering during this deadline cycle.
- Pay key researchers and advisors who are playing a supporting/advisory role.
Who are we? We are a team of researchers affiliated with BasedMIP, a project at UC Davis to develop better models of climate and environment. You can learn more about our team here: basedmip.ucdavis.edu.
In July, thanks to the generous support of everyone who donated to our crowdfunding campaign, we were able to attend a leading climate data gathering in the UK and present our research. We thought this meeting was the finish line, however, while we were there, we learned some fossil-fuel-funded misinformation is about to be congealed into the leading climate models. If our work from July is going to matter, we need to get the misinformation out of these models, but we only have a matter of weeks to raise the funds we need to stay in the running to do it.
What happened? Over the last 6 years, a team of researchers as UC Davis has taken the lead in uncovering forms of fossil-fuel-funded misinformation that's gotten into leading climate models. These researchers have begun to organize youth-led efforts to repair the models. It seemed like everything was on track to make sure these repairs would happen. However, early this year, a wave of federal "DOGE" cuts sent our university spiraling into chaos, with key budgets being eliminated or put into limbo. Suddenly, the ability to find things like a quarter's worth of GSR funding vanished. We'd hoped things would clear up by now, but they haven't. The belt has tightened into a tourniquet. All funding sources have vanished, and we actually do need funds if these repairs to climate models are going to happen.
The truth of the matter is this: We need a full time graduate assistant who knows the ropes to help guide this project. Right now, there are no instruction manuals, and doing this work means navigating a whole bunch of ad hoc systems (both in the code/data, and in the institutions that manage the data), and there's no way to navigate them without a person who knows the ropes. If we don't have this guidance, this project will be cooked.
What the funds are going towards:
- To pay for a "buy out" of a GSR from BasedMIP who will guide this project.
- Help pay for the costs of traveling to a key gathering in September that will help keep us in the running within the IPCC's internal deadline structure.
- Pizza budget for youth-led climate data hack-a-thons.
- Various other helpful things for if we raise more than that.
The Updated Plan
- In late September, thanks to the help of everyone who donated to this fundraiser---along with last-minute travel funding from UC Berkeley and from the Feminist Research Institute at UC Davis that came through due in part to excitement y'all generated by donating--we were able to attend a gathering of a leading IPCC-affiliated modeling community.
- This gathering was on Sept 28-29 in Exeter, UK, and there, we were given a chance to make a short presentation to the IPCC-affiliated scientists about some of the key issue we've found with the climate models, with a focus on forms of fossil-fuel-funded misinformation that got congealed into the models in a really sneaky & nefarious way.
- The researchers were surprized to learn about all this, and they tentatively agreed to follow our suggestions. However, they now need 4 working papers from us. And these papers will need to be published in peer-reviewed journals quite soon!
- So, this is bit change from our original timeline for this project: We thought we've be cramming to create a bunch of giant modeling frameworks this autumn, but instead, we're going to be working with a group of IPCC-affiliated scientists to support the development of their "meta-model," so this (thankfully) means that our deadlines are slightly more spread out than we thought they would be, and also, we'll be working until Spring or Summer on this now, instead of having to cram everything in before December . Phew!
- So, the youth-led hack-a-thons won't be happening until the Spring (stay tuned!)
- In the meantime, we need to get these four papers written ASAP! We're hoping to get them to the scientists by mid-November so they have time to review them before their internal deadlines for the first part of their modeling framework.
- For at least 3 of these papers, we will have youth co-authors who will help compile the bibliographies and/or conduct relevant research. More on all that later!
- So we are shifting our plan as follows:
The plan (Updated Oct 10th)
- Oct-Nov 2025. Parameterization work has begun. We'll be working on 4 papers for the IPCC-affiliated scientists, which will have youth co-authors working on different types of research to support the rapid writing of these papers - including information research, qualitative hermeneutic research, and statistical analysis research.
- Dec 2025-Jan 2026. We'll be working with IPCC-affiliated scientists to finalize the first part of their "meta-model" to make sure the fossil-fuel-funded misinformation has been thoroughly removed.
- Jan-March 2026. Prep work for next phase.
- Spring 2026. Modeling work begins. A series of 2-6 youth-led climate data hack-a-thons will unfold, under the guidance of student-researchers. At these hack-a-thons, we will work to refine repairs to leading climate models.
These climate model repairs are urgent, and we believe that once they are made, it will greatly help world leaders and the public better organize efforts to combat climate change.
Current climate models are filled with fossil-fuel-funded misinformation that distract policymakers at best, and that cause coalitions to fall apart at worse, which forestalls policy. (If you want to learn more about one type off fossil-fuel-funded misinformation that is still in leading climate models, please check out this video of a talk our GSR gave at a conference earlier this year.)
We have got to get the fossil-fuel-funded misinformation out of leading climate models. Will you help us? Please consider donating. Even just $10 goes a long way.
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Who's part of this research team? We are youth researchers from UC Berkeley, UC Davis, and youth climate movements. Some of our bios are up below, and we'll add more information about our teams soon. We are currently building teams organized via an undergrad-led research group at UC Berkeley and via Davis Data Driven Change (D3C), a student-led data justice organization at UC Davis.
Here is a bit more about us:
Mryoslava Rose Fusin, Undergraduate Researcher, UC Berkeley - Myro has taught a climate media literacy student-led "DeCal" class for 4 quarters at UC Berkeley, she has serviced as the Lead Student Researcher of the Sustainable Development Goal Undergraduate Research Group at UC Berkeley since 2023, and she is a former youth climate organizer.
Kolan Moco, Post-Bacc Researcher, UC Davis - is a recent UC Davis graduate who was part of D3C, the student-led data justice organization on campus, and studied design and computer science minor, alongside experience as a biomedical engineering student. She is serving as a climate communications researcher intern as part of this effort.
Harlin/Hayley Steele, Graduate Student Research (GSR) in Science and Technology Studies - they have led several researcher groups at UC Davis in investigating the structure of leading climate models since 2019. They have worked at NASA, and is a climate modeler affiliated with the IPCC. Steele will serve as the GSR for this project, helping youth organizers navigate the deadlines and stay on top of ad hoc processes in the coming weeks.
More profiles of student organizers and researchers involved with this project will be added soon, stay tuned!
What kinds of impact will this project have?
This project has the potential to remove some fossil-fuel-funded misinformation from leading climate models that is currently distracting world leaders and the public from taking measures to tackle climate change with the urgency and precision it deserves. We estimate that the changes we are proposing will prevent many millions of unnecessary human deaths and prevent countless animal deaths if they are implemented now, rather than later. But we have no hope of getting these things implemented during this 7-year assessment cycle unless we have the support we need to do the work before the deadlines pass. That is why this work needs to be funded urgently.
This work will not only help us remove forms of fossil-fuel-funded misinformation from leading climate models, but it will also help us do much-needed onboarding to train the next generation of climate modelers. Currently youth are deeply under represented in climate modeling research. This is in large part due to lack of onboarding and opportunities for youth to get hands-on training working on leading climate models. Youth have the most to lose from climate change - it's time for us to be pat of the process of developing and repairing leading climate assessment tools.
Youth researchers also frequently bring fresh eyes to old problems, helping researchers come up with strategies that might have otherwise been overlooked. As part of our summer project, a group of youth researchers helped alert leading climate modelers about things they left out of their models - such as the emissions impact of war, of fossil fuel lobbying, and of wealth inequity. This project helped showcase how youth voices really do make a difference: we ask questions that other generations often forget to ask. We're more likely to question old patterns, and this leads us to spot gaps in the models that those from past generations seem to have overlooked.
This project not only will help us make urgent repairs to leading climate models, but this is a way of helping youth researchers gain much-needed experience and hands-on training in climate modeling. This is how we will steer the planet to the best outcome that's still possible.
The cost breakdown is below:
- Late September Climate Modeler Gathering in UK ($1500). This is an internal gathering of an IPCC-affiliated modeling group, and we've been given a unique opportunity to take part in it. This gathering will help us stay "in process" to ensure that our suggested model repairs remain in the running. Two of us will attend the gathering in person (Harlin/Hayley and Myro), and we'll be reporting back to everyone after the gathering. We are hoping to raise at least $1500 to help cover the cost of plane tickets, room and board, and travel expenses related to this gathering.
- Graduate Student Researcher 50% "Buy Out" for autumn 2025 & Spring 2026. ($11,149.25+) We need our graduate student researcher to be able to help us navigate the deadlines and ad hoc process that will unfold between September and the end of December. Without this guidance, this project is cooked. Typical 50% salary for a GSR of their standing for 6 months would be $22,298.51. Depending on what is decided (and how much we raise), we might try having the GSR do a quarter-time buyout meaning they'd work a several other while helping us. We'd been hoping they'd be able to get a research position to do this work at UC Davis, but such positions simply aren't available amidst the funding chaos that is currently unfolding.
- Hack-a-thon budget (~$5000). It would be great to be able to buy pizza and feed a couple hundred people during several the climate data hack-a-thon in the spring. Simply having food during the events will help make sure everyone can focus on getting their work done during these events, which may be unfolding at 3 campuses (UCD, UCB, and CSUEB). We also estimate there will be between 2-6 hackathons, with 50 people at each. According to google, we should factor in around $20 per person per day for the food budget. This would be much higher than $5000, but maybe we'll be able to find some restaurants who want to help support us by giving us a discount? If you know if any restaurants that might be able to help with this, that would be amazing!
Other ways to help:
- Do you know of any restaurants near UC Davis, UC Berkeley, or CSUEB who might be able to offer us a discount to feed everyone during the climate data hackathons? Things like burritos, pizza, and food that's easy to grab without a lot of clean up are preferred, but we are open to improvise.
Do you need your donation to be made with 501c3 status? (For example, some employers offer matching funds if you do it that way). To get 501c3 status on your donation, here's what to do:
Step 1) Donate at this link: https://give.ucdavis.edu/FERI
Step 2) Send an email to Dr. Sarah McCullough to let her know that the donation is for "BasedMIP." Here is her email: smcc[at]ucdavis[dot]edu.
Thank you so much for helping out!
These climate models will soon be locked in, and there won't be another changes to change them until the early 2030s. We hope to be able to remove this misinformation from these models this time around, instead of having to wait another 7 years.
Milestone goals:
- $1500 - Travel budget. This will help make sure our travel expenses are covered for the September internal climate modeling gathering
- $ 12,649.25 - Travel budget + 1/2 time GSR buyout. This will ensure we do a half-time buy out for our GSR, helping make sure we have the support we need to navigate the deadline process and stay on top of everything
- $ 18,223.86 -Travel covered + 3/4 time GSR buyout. This will ensure we have travel covered and a 3/4-time buy out for our GSR.
- $ 23,223.86 -Travel covered + 3/4 time GSR buyout + Hack-a-thon Budget. This will ensure we have travel covered and a 3/4-time buy out for our GSR and cover our food costs during the hack-a-thons.
- $28,798.51 -Travel covered + full time GSR buyout + Hack-a-thon Budget. This will ensure we have travel covered and a fulltime buy out for our GSR and cover our food costs during the hack-a-thons.
- $30,498.51 -Full expenses covered + full time GSR buyout + Hack-a-thon Budget. We estimate the actual expenses for this work to be a big higher than want we are listing here. This amount will help ensure we have full expenses covered and a fulltime buy out for our GSR and cover our food costs during the hack-a-thons. (Note: there were some extra travel expenses occurred so we could ensure that a student researcher would get back in time to take a midterm; this extra amount will largely go towards comping for that).
- $35,000 -Full expenses covered + full time GSR buyout + Hack-a-thon Budget + Comm Intern Salary + Other expenses. This would allow us to also offer a salary to our communications intern, and would provide funds to cover other possible expenses, such as open access fees when we publish our work in academic journals, grant writing fees, funds left over can be used to support future efforts.
Every little bit helps. Even just $25 would go a long way! Sharing also helps too!
This is an intense moment in history. There are a lot of fires that need to be put out. We want to do all we can to reduce the number of fires in the future, and to steer towards the best future that's still possible. But how can we do that if there are broken, fossil-fuel-funded metrics in leading climate assessment tools?
Thank you so, so much for your consideration of this project!
Let's steer the planet towards the best outcome that's still possible.
Organizer
Harlin Hayley Steele
Organizer
Berkeley, CA