Seismic operations in support of oil and gas development within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge have the potential to severely impact the population and migration dynamics of the Porcupine Caribou Herd which has calved here for millennia.
I am working hard to ensure that this outcome does not occur and would like your help.
I am an independent scientist that's been working in this Refuge for 25 years studying it's glaciers, permafrost, and coastlines, in part by studying changes in the high resolution topographic maps that I make here from my airplane. All told I've probably spent over 4 years of my life here over that time.
My maps have revealed that the permafrost beneath the entire 1002 Area (where oil and gas development is now permitted) is thawing pervasively, creating depressions that are massively reorganizing the surface hydrology, which in turn is rapidly transforming the plant ecology -- likely more changes in the past 10 years than the past 1000.
Already we have lost ~8% of the plant foods calving caribou depend on. Heavy seismic vehicles working on a 200 m x 200 m grid (totaling ~40,000 miles of travel) have the potential to leave ruts of the same depth as the natural melt is already causing, creating a gridwork of stream channels that will also impact the interiors of those grids as well, potentially eliminating 50% of the plant foods caribou depend on within their calving habitat within a few years. Such a change would surely impact caribou population and migration dynamics, yet the regulatory guidance and protocols do not even considered these outcomes.
This seismic work is only permitted in winter, attempting to use the snow cover to protect the tundra.
My data show that the minimum snow depths mandated are insufficient to provide this protection, especially in the Arctic Refuge due to its increased sensitivity to disturbance compared to elsewhere in the Arctic.
I am raising money to determine, for the first time, a relationship between snow depth and the severity of seismic impacts so that we have a scientific basis for establishing a minimum snow thickness that will ensure protection of the caribou here.
I have already mapped seismic operations as they occurred this winter nearby, see some photos and analysis in the image gallery.
Now I need to measure that same area in summer so that I can determine the snow depth beneath each of the thousands of miles of vehicle tracks, determine the severity of their impacts on the tundra, correlate the two together, determine the snow depth threshold required to prevent impacts, and write this into a report by end of summer so it can be used in time to prevent business-as-usual from harming the Porcupine Caribou Herd and the ecological trajectory of the Arctic Refuge.
I'm connected with a team of lawyers who have been fighting to protect the Refuge for years and who are eager to ensure that this science will not be ignored.
And this not my first rodeo-- my research here in 2018 successfully prevented irresponsible seismic operations the next winter, as featured in the New York Times:
You can read a comprehensive series of blogs I've written that describes the problems and the solutions in detail:
Part 1: How seismic operations threaten the Porcupine Caribou Herd
Part 2: The sensitivity of the 1002 Area to disturbance by seismic operations
Part 3: Is there enough snow in the 1002 Area to keep seismic operations from harming the Porcupine Caribou Herd?
https://fairbanksfodar.com/is-there-enough-snow-in-the-1002-area-to-keep-seismic-operations-from-harming-the-porcupine-caribou-herd/
Working in Arctic Alaska is really expensive. I have asked for support from the relevant agencies in the Federal government and from industry itself -- but with no luck: there is top down pressure to prevent science from controlling outcomes.
The short answer is that having no scientific data works to the Government's and Industry's benefit, so neither of them is going to fund the required studies.
So if we want to protect these caribou and the last remaining wilderness of this size, it's time to go on the offensive and do this ourselves.
All donations are useful and appreciated.
Donations of $500 can participate in a quarterly group zoom call where I share my progress, donations of $1000 or more get a quarterly one-on-one zoom call, and donations over $5000 can get nonprofit tax credits through a DAF-enabled partner.
Though I'm only trying to raise $100k for this project, there are dozens of projects like this that need to occur here, both for basic science and to hold industry to account. With the gutting of the National Science Foundation, the decimation of the Arctic Refuge staff (they are down half their positions and only have one scientists on staff), and the general bad attitude that the current Federal administration has towards science, we the people are the only scientific backstop remaining. The funding void totals millions per year. If filling that gap holds value for you, I know what needs to be done, who needs to do it, and I am eager to facilitate ensuring that science moves forward however I can.