Play by Play Data and Analysis
Donation protected
I'm raising money to purchase three years of play level charting data for analysis. Backers will receive a detailed document with all findings and metrics that can't currently be found anywhere else.
Funds raised will go exclusively to the purchase of the data; my time performing the analysis and creating the work product will be gratis. I will personally cover the GoFundMe fees (~$250+). There is no minimum donation, we just need to reach the goal.
Some of my previous research can be found here:
NFL Player Game Speed Research
NFL League-Level Passing Efficiency & Metric Creation
Apps created as a result of these and other research projects can be found on airyards.com
Bottom line: If I purchase this data myself, to justify the spend I will need to start a business to monetize the research and work product. This will inhibit the spread of an understanding of the game of football and force me to focus my efforts on things that are not research related. I already have a business; I have no desire to start another.
Research goals and the subsequent deliverables are guaranteed to include, but are by no means limited to:
League Level Analysis (17 items)
* Analysis of the passing efficiency of each charted route (Comp/Catch%, RACR/PACR, YAC) adjusted for depth.
Route types included in the charting data:
Flat, Slant, Comeback, Curl, Out, Dig, Corner, Post, Fade, Fade - Back Shoulder, Deep Cross, Screen, Wheel, Drag, Swing, Angle, Seam, Quick, Go, Whip, Chip, Check & Release, Sluggo, Hitch & G, Post Corner, Corner Post, Out & Up, Broken Play.
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by coverage type, adjusted for depth (Comp/Catch%, RACR/PACR, YAC).
Coverages charted:
Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Combo, Man Cover 2.
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by when a man is put in motion, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by WR formation type, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
Receiver formations charted include:
Single left, Single Right, Twin left, Twin Right, Trips Left, Trips Right, Bunch Left, Bunch Right, Spread, Slot Left, Slot Right, Slot Tight Left, Slot Tight Right, Goal Line, Other, Balanced, All Tight, Quads Left, Quads Right
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by RB formation type, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
RB formations charted include:
Empty Back, Split Backs, I Formation, Offset I, Full House, TE Flex Wing, Single Back, Other, Pistol, Wildcat, Pistol-2 Back, Pistol 3-Back, Wing Right, Wing Left, Double Wing (!)
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by offensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
Personnel groupings are standard (first number is RBs on the field, second number is TEs): 00, 01, 02, 10, 11, 12, 13, 20, 21, 22, 23
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by defensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
This is # of LBs (0-6), DL (0-6), and DB (2-7)
* Analysis of passing efficiency of route type vs defensive coverage, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of passing efficiency of route type vs defensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes when pressured, in the pocket, Bootleg, Play Action, No Huddle and Shotgun adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by run type (YPC/Success Rate).
Run types include:
Pitch, Reverse, Dive, Counter, Off-Tackle, Trap, Direct Snap, Draw, End Around, Backwards Pass, Stretch, Broken Play, Je Sweep, FB Dive, Lead, Power, Sweep, QB Design, QB Sneak, QB Draw, Scramble - Pressure, Scramble - Coverage, Scramble - Hole in Zone, Option Pitch, Option Keep, Triple Option Gove, Triple Option Keep, Triple Option Pitch, Zone Read Keeper
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by blocking scheme (YPC/Success Rate).
Schemes include:
Puller(s) Outside Numbers, 2+ Pullers, Backside Pull, Frontside Pull, Zone, Extra Lineman
* Analysis of rushing efficiency by RB formation type, adjusted for depth (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of the efficiency of rushes by WR formation type, adjusted for depth (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency by run type and broken out by blocking scheme (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by offensive personnel (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by defensive personnel (YPC/Success Rate).
Team/Player Level Analysis (6)
Correlation and year-over-year stability analysis of:
* Route efficiency - Which routes correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win at certain routes tend to continue to win with those routes the following season?
* Coverage type - Which coverage types correlate best with offensive points scored and winning (i.e. which are easiest to beat)? Do teams/players who win against certain coverages tend to continue to win against those coverages the following season?
* Defensive personnel type - Which personnel groups correlate best with offensive points scored and winning (i.e. which are easiest to beat)? Do teams/players who win against certain personnel groups tend to continue to win against those coverages the following season?
* Receiver formations - Which formations correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain formations tend to continue to win with those formations the following season?
* Running back formations - Which formations correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain formations tend to continue to win with those formations the following season?
* Running scheme - Which running schemes correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain schemes tend to continue to win with those schemes the following season?
New Metrics (2)
Teams and player rankings based on:
* Rushing yards over expectation adjusted for scheme and defensive personnel
* Passing efficiency over expectation adjusted for route mix and defensive coverage.
-----------------------------------------------
Any amount helps! Let's figure out the game of football together.
Funds raised will go exclusively to the purchase of the data; my time performing the analysis and creating the work product will be gratis. I will personally cover the GoFundMe fees (~$250+). There is no minimum donation, we just need to reach the goal.
Some of my previous research can be found here:
NFL Player Game Speed Research
NFL League-Level Passing Efficiency & Metric Creation
Apps created as a result of these and other research projects can be found on airyards.com
Bottom line: If I purchase this data myself, to justify the spend I will need to start a business to monetize the research and work product. This will inhibit the spread of an understanding of the game of football and force me to focus my efforts on things that are not research related. I already have a business; I have no desire to start another.
Research goals and the subsequent deliverables are guaranteed to include, but are by no means limited to:
League Level Analysis (17 items)
* Analysis of the passing efficiency of each charted route (Comp/Catch%, RACR/PACR, YAC) adjusted for depth.
Route types included in the charting data:
Flat, Slant, Comeback, Curl, Out, Dig, Corner, Post, Fade, Fade - Back Shoulder, Deep Cross, Screen, Wheel, Drag, Swing, Angle, Seam, Quick, Go, Whip, Chip, Check & Release, Sluggo, Hitch & G, Post Corner, Corner Post, Out & Up, Broken Play.
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by coverage type, adjusted for depth (Comp/Catch%, RACR/PACR, YAC).
Coverages charted:
Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Combo, Man Cover 2.
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by when a man is put in motion, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by WR formation type, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
Receiver formations charted include:
Single left, Single Right, Twin left, Twin Right, Trips Left, Trips Right, Bunch Left, Bunch Right, Spread, Slot Left, Slot Right, Slot Tight Left, Slot Tight Right, Goal Line, Other, Balanced, All Tight, Quads Left, Quads Right
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by RB formation type, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
RB formations charted include:
Empty Back, Split Backs, I Formation, Offset I, Full House, TE Flex Wing, Single Back, Other, Pistol, Wildcat, Pistol-2 Back, Pistol 3-Back, Wing Right, Wing Left, Double Wing (!)
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by offensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
Personnel groupings are standard (first number is RBs on the field, second number is TEs): 00, 01, 02, 10, 11, 12, 13, 20, 21, 22, 23
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes by defensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
This is # of LBs (0-6), DL (0-6), and DB (2-7)
* Analysis of passing efficiency of route type vs defensive coverage, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of passing efficiency of route type vs defensive personnel, adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of the efficiency of passes when pressured, in the pocket, Bootleg, Play Action, No Huddle and Shotgun adjusted for depth (PACR/RACR, Catch/Comp%, YAC).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by run type (YPC/Success Rate).
Run types include:
Pitch, Reverse, Dive, Counter, Off-Tackle, Trap, Direct Snap, Draw, End Around, Backwards Pass, Stretch, Broken Play, Je Sweep, FB Dive, Lead, Power, Sweep, QB Design, QB Sneak, QB Draw, Scramble - Pressure, Scramble - Coverage, Scramble - Hole in Zone, Option Pitch, Option Keep, Triple Option Gove, Triple Option Keep, Triple Option Pitch, Zone Read Keeper
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by blocking scheme (YPC/Success Rate).
Schemes include:
Puller(s) Outside Numbers, 2+ Pullers, Backside Pull, Frontside Pull, Zone, Extra Lineman
* Analysis of rushing efficiency by RB formation type, adjusted for depth (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of the efficiency of rushes by WR formation type, adjusted for depth (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency by run type and broken out by blocking scheme (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by offensive personnel (YPC/Success Rate).
* Analysis of rushing efficiency broken out by defensive personnel (YPC/Success Rate).
Team/Player Level Analysis (6)
Correlation and year-over-year stability analysis of:
* Route efficiency - Which routes correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win at certain routes tend to continue to win with those routes the following season?
* Coverage type - Which coverage types correlate best with offensive points scored and winning (i.e. which are easiest to beat)? Do teams/players who win against certain coverages tend to continue to win against those coverages the following season?
* Defensive personnel type - Which personnel groups correlate best with offensive points scored and winning (i.e. which are easiest to beat)? Do teams/players who win against certain personnel groups tend to continue to win against those coverages the following season?
* Receiver formations - Which formations correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain formations tend to continue to win with those formations the following season?
* Running back formations - Which formations correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain formations tend to continue to win with those formations the following season?
* Running scheme - Which running schemes correlate best with points and winning? Do teams/players who win using certain schemes tend to continue to win with those schemes the following season?
New Metrics (2)
Teams and player rankings based on:
* Rushing yards over expectation adjusted for scheme and defensive personnel
* Passing efficiency over expectation adjusted for route mix and defensive coverage.
-----------------------------------------------
Any amount helps! Let's figure out the game of football together.
Organizer
Josh Hermsmeyer
Organizer
Coeur d'Alene, ID
